10/10/2018

抄袭听证会:美联储的政治抉择

抄袭听证会:美联储的政治抉择

然而,这将要求美联储在思维过程中做出重大转变,因为美联储内部似乎对恢复更正常的利率有些不耐烦。对于美联储是否有意愿尽快逆转这一进程,特别是在竞选即将到来之际,仍有一些疑问。此外,不管美联储成员的反对,美联储本身就是一个政治机构。美联储表现出维护自身合法性的兴趣,同时也在保护美联储不受“审计美联储”运动影响的独立性(Bergstrand et al., 2015)。在此背景下,审计是在国会审查主观性的前提下,对货币政策进行个人决策。

抄袭听证会:美联储的政治抉择
如果美联储在大选前转向非常规措施,那么引发政治愤怒的可能性就更大。在这种背景下,美联储官员将面临一系列艰难的决定。美联储考虑在扩张性的基础上采取货币政策,以便在短期内使经济走上改善的道路。这可能最终会损害未来几年的整体效果。如果经济形势非常糟糕,就像选举期间他们一直在迎合经济一样。这将导致天平向货币政策刺激倾斜。当投资者对关键当局将考虑对抗任何衰退力量抱有信心时,就没有必要对每一个令数据失望的点做出反应(Bergstrand et al., 2015)。

抄袭听证会:美联储的政治抉择

However, this will hold a requirement of major shift in the thought process, as there appears to be some impatience across the Fed for returning to more normal rates of interest. There are still some doubts on whether there is any desire across Fed for reversing the course soon and specifically not when running- up for the election. In addition, irrespective of the protests of members to the contrary, Fed itself is an institution of politics. Fed shows interest to preserve its own legitimacy, while guarding the independence from the movement of “Audit the Fed” (Bergstrand et al., 2015). In this context, the audit is to make individual decisions of monetary policy under the subjectivity of congressional review.

抄袭听证会:美联储的政治抉择
If there is turning to unconventional measures by the Fed prior to an election, there are stronger chances of political furor. The officials of Fed will face a number of difficult decisions in this context. The Fed considers following the monetary policy on expansionary basis for setting the economy over an improved course within the shorter run. This may end up harming the overall effectiveness in the years to come. If the circumstances of economy are dire sufficiently, as they had been catering the economy in the duration of election. This would have resulted in tipping the balance towards stimulus of monetary policy. When there lies confidence among investors that the key authorities will consider countering any forces of recession, there is no need for responding to each and every point disappointing the data (Bergstrand et al., 2015).

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